Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Passing Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 17, 2023 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 301.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 306.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 301.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 6th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 63.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 134.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 40.7 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 2nd-most of all QBs.
Opposing teams have averaged 35.1 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in the league.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line ranks as the 9th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
Patrick Mahomes's passing accuracy has diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 67.5% to 54.3%.
The Jacksonville Jaguars cornerbacks project as the 3rd-best collection of CBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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