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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 17

Kansas City Chiefs vs Cincinnati Bengals

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 270.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 263.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 270.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs as the 9th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 60.9% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

In this contest, Patrick Mahomes is anticipated by the predictive model to average the 9th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 36.6.

When talking about protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Chiefs ranks as the 7th-best in the league this year.

With an exceptional 67.2% Adjusted Completion% (83rd percentile) this year, Patrick Mahomes has been among the most on-target passers in the NFL.

Opposing QBs have passed for the most adjusted yards in the league (279.0 per game) versus the Bengals defense this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 7-point advantage, the Chiefs are a huge favorite in this week's game, indicating much more of a focus on rushing than their normal game plan.

The predictive model expects the Chiefs to call the 5th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Patrick Mahomes has passed for many fewer adjusted yards per game (279.0) this season than he did last season (325.0).

Patrick Mahomes's 7.37 adjusted yards-per-target this season represents a noteable decrease in his throwing effectiveness over last season's 8.5% rate.

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