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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 270.5 (-135/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 270.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 270.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to pass on 60.6% of their plays: the 8th-highest rate among all teams this week.

The predictive model expects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 37.4 passes in this game, on average: the 7th-most among all quarterbacks.

As it relates to pass protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Kansas City Chiefs ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year.

With an exceptional 67.5% Adjusted Completion% (83rd percentile) this year, Patrick Mahomes rates as one of the most accurate passers in football.

This year, the deficient Raiders defense has yielded a whopping 73.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the biggest rate in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chiefs are a massive 10.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.

Windy weather conditions (like the 15-mph being called for in this game) generally correlate with worse passing efficiency, reduced air volume, and increased rush volume.

Patrick Mahomes's 280.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year indicates a remarkable reduction in his passing talent over last year's 325.0 mark.

Patrick Mahomes's 7.48 adjusted yards-per-target this season represents an impressive decrease in his passing efficiency over last season's 8.5% figure.

More Patrick Mahomes Player Props

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