Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Passing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 263.5 (-113/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 265.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 263.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 64.6% of their opportunities: the 2nd-greatest rate among all teams this week.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Chiefs are expected by the projection model to run 65.5 total plays in this game: the 9th-most among all teams this week.
The leading projections forecast Patrick Mahomes to throw 40.3 passes in this contest, on average: the most out of all QBs.
With a fantastic 68.3% Adjusted Completion% (79th percentile) this year, Patrick Mahomes stands among the best precision passers in football.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the highest clip in the league against the Buffalo Bills defense this year (75.9% Adjusted Completion%).

Favors Under

Opposing QBs have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Bills defense this year: 9th-fewest in the NFL.
Patrick Mahomes has thrown for many fewer adjusted yards per game (276.0) this season than he did last season (325.0).
Patrick Mahomes's pass-game effectiveness has worsened this year, averaging a measly 7.45 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 8.54 rate last year.
This year, the strong Bills defense has given up the 3rd-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing squads: a puny 4.2 YAC.
As it relates to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Buffalo's CB corps has been excellent this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

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