Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Passing Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 259.5 (-113/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 262.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 259.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 5th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 63.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
In this week's contest, Patrick Mahomes is predicted by the projection model to have the 3rd-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 39.0.
With an impressive 67.8% Adjusted Completion% (75th percentile) this year, Patrick Mahomes stands as one of the most accurate passers in football.
This year, the poor Las Vegas Raiders defense has been gouged for a monstrous 74.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 5th-biggest rate in football.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a huge 9.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
Patrick Mahomes has passed for significantly fewer adjusted yards per game (273.0) this season than he did last season (325.0).
Patrick Mahomes's 7.24 adjusted yards-per-target this season indicates a remarkable regression in his passing efficiency over last season's 8.5% mark.

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