Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Passing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 21, 2023 12:26 AM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 274.5 (-136/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 280.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 274.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 63.6% of their plays: the 2nd-highest frequency among all teams this week.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to see 130.4 offensive plays run: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.
In this game, Patrick Mahomes is predicted by the model to have the 2nd-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 39.4.
Opposing offenses have averaged 41.3 pass attempts per game against the Eagles defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.
With an impressive 68.5% Adjusted Completion% (79th percentile) this year, Patrick Mahomes has been among the most on-target passers in football.

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Patrick Mahomes has thrown for quite a few less adjusted yards per game (278.0) this season than he did last season (325.0).
Patrick Mahomes's 7.49 adjusted yards-per-target this season represents a material regression in his passing effectiveness over last season's 8.5% rate.
This year, the formidable Eagles defense has yielded the least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing squads: a measly 3.8 YAC.

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