Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Passing Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:56 PM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 277.5 (-103/-133).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 288.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 277.5 @ -133.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 2nd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 64.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 39.8 passes in this week's game, on average: the 3rd-most of all QBs.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Patrick Mahomes has thrown for many more yards per game (318.0) this year than he did last year (255.0).

Favors Under

The weatherman calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 6th-least in football.
Opposing QBs have passed for the least yards in the league (just 183.0 per game) against the San Francisco 49ers defense this year.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency this year, allowing 6.36 yards-per-target: the 5th-least in the NFL.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 5.26 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-least in football.

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