Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Passing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 297.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 65.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 136.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 42.4 passes in this week's game, on average: the 2nd-most of all quarterbacks.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
Patrick Mahomes has passed for significantly more yards per game (313.0) this season than he did last season (255.0).

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.6 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the 5th-least yards in the league (just 206.0 per game) vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has exhibited good efficiency this year, yielding 6.32 yards-per-target: the 5th-least in football.
The Buffalo Bills defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.43 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in the NFL.

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