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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 5

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 279.5 (-173/+137).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 279.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 279.5 @ -173.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Patrick Mahomes has thrown for many more yards per game (307.0) this year than he did last year (255.0).

Patrick Mahomes has been among the most accurate QBs in football this year with an impressive 67.0% Completion%, grading out in the 78th percentile.

Patrick Mahomes has been among the most efficient quarterbacks in football this year, averaging a terrific 8.41 yards-per-target while grading out in the 100th percentile.

Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 5th-most yards in football (273.0 per game) vs. the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chiefs are a massive 7-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 63.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run among all games this week at 128.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 39.3 passes in this game, on average: the 2nd-least of all QBs.

The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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