Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Passing Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 290.5 (-130/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 290.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 290.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 4th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 63.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 64.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 38.3 passes in this contest, on average: the most of all quarterbacks.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line ranks as the 2nd-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all air attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 7th-lowest rate in the NFL against the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season (68.2%).
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has displayed good efficiency since the start of last season, yielding 7.31 yards-per-target: the 9th-least in football.
The Indianapolis Colts defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 5.04 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 8th-least in football.