Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 22

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Passing Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 22, 2022

Updated Feb 13, 2023 12:26 AM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 320.5 (+173/-222).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 286.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 320.5 @ +173.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 70.5% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 138.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Patrick Mahomes has attempted 40.2 passes per game this year, checking in at the 92nd percentile among quarterbacks.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 10th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing game stats across the board.
Patrick Mahomes has been among the top passers in football this year, averaging a terrific 326.0 yards per game while grading out in the 100th percentile.

Favors Under

The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game versus the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: least in the league.
Opposing QBs have passed for the 9th-least yards in the NFL (just 206.0 per game) vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 4th-lowest rate in the league against the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year (67.1%).
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has shown strong efficiency this year, yielding 7.03 yards-per-target: the 4th-least in the league.

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