Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Passing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 8:31 PM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 287.5 (-130/+100).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 8th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the most plays on offense among all teams this week with 69.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 41.6 passes in this contest, on average: the most of all QBs.
Patrick Mahomes has been among the top QBs in football this year, averaging a stellar 332.0 yards per game while checking in at the 100th percentile.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a massive 12.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 5th-least yards in the league (just 212.0 per game) against the Denver Broncos defense this year.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has shown good efficiency this year, surrendering 6.71 yards-per-target: the 2nd-least in football.
The Denver Broncos cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-best group of CBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on just 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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