Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Passing Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 304.5 (-133/+102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 308.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 304.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 2nd-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 67.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 133.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 60.7 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 42.4 passes in this week's game, on average: the most of all QBs.

Favors Under

The Cincinnati Bengals defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 5.04 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-least in football.
The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers project as the 5th-best LB corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a measly 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the league). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
The Kansas City Chiefs have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.