Patrick Mahomes Pass Attempts - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Pass Attempts

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 12, 2022 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 36.5 (-135/+105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 64.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 6th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 10th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a colossal 59.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 41.4 passes in this game, on average: the 3rd-most of all QBs.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a huge 8.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The Denver Broncos have stacked the box versus opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on just 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the league). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.
The Kansas City Chiefs have elected to go for it on 4th down just 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.

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