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Patrick Mahomes Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 38.5 (-102/-130).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 4th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 65.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 2nd-most total plays on the slate this week with 69.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 61.9 plays per game.THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 43.6 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 2nd-most of all QBs.The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box against opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Chiefs are a huge 9.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a lowly 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.The Kansas City Chiefs have gone for it on 4th down a measly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.
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