Patrick Mahomes Interceptions - Player Prop Bet Week 21

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Interceptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills · Week 21, 2024

Updated Jan 26, 2025 11:41 PM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Interceptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+111/-138).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -138.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Chiefs as the most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 64.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see just 132.5 plays on offense run: the fewest out of all the games this week.
The 10th-most plays in football have been called by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a staggering 58.6 per game on average).
The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The predictive model expects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 40.1 passes this week, on balance: the most out of all QBs.

Favors Under

The Buffalo Bills have intercepted 0.82 balls per game this year, ranking as the 9th-best defense in football by this stat.

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