Patrick Mahomes Interceptions - Player Prop Bet Week 20

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Interceptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Houston Texans · Week 20, 2024

Updated Jan 18, 2025 9:06 PM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Interceptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+112/-154).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -109 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -154.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented team in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 68.3% pass rate.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to have 136.5 plays on offense run: the most out of all the games this week.
The Chiefs have called the 7th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 59.5 plays per game.
The leading projections forecast Patrick Mahomes to throw 38.6 passes in this contest, on average: the most out of all quarterbacks.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all air attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

This week's line suggests an extreme running game script for the Chiefs, who are overwhelmingly favored by 8.5 points.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense this year: 9th-fewest in the NFL.
Houston's defense profiles as the 2nd-best in football this year when it comes to making interceptions, compiling 1.28 per game.
When it comes to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Houston's group of CBs has been excellent this year, profiling as the best in football.

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