Patrick Mahomes Interceptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Interceptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Interceptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-106/-124).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-oriented offense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 72.4% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 40.1 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 4th-most of all QBs.
The Los Angeles Rams have intercepted 0.47 balls per game this year, grading out as the 8th-worst defense in football by this statistic
The Los Angeles Rams safeties grade out as the 9th-worst unit in the league this year in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 10th-least in the NFL.
The Los Angeles Rams pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.