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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Completions
Player Prop Week 9

Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Patrick Mahomes Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-121/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ -121.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Buccaneers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 4th-most passes in football (38.6 per game) this year.

The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing game statistics across the board.

With an impressive 68.6% Adjusted Completion% (81st percentile) this year, Patrick Mahomes stands as one of the best precision passers in the league.

Opposing teams have completed passes at the highest level in football vs. the Buccaneers defense this year (73.2% Adjusted Completion%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chiefs are a huge 8.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.

Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs as the least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 56.9% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

The projections expect Patrick Mahomes to attempt 35.1 passes in this contest, on balance: the fewest among all quarterbacks.

The Tampa Bay cornerbacks project as the best collection of CBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

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