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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Completions
Player Prop Week 3

Atlanta Falcons vs Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-128/-102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 23.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ -128.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Our trusted projections expect the Chiefs as the most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 64.4% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 3rd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 131.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Our trusted projections expect Patrick Mahomes to attempt 39.5 passes this week, on balance: the most out of all quarterbacks.

As it relates to protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack stats), the offensive line of the Chiefs profiles as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A rushing game script is suggested by the Chiefs being a 3-point favorite in this game.

Since the start of last season, the formidable Atlanta Falcons defense has yielded a measly 67.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 8th-lowest rate in the league.

The Falcons linebackers grade out as the 10th-best collection of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.

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