Patrick Mahomes Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Completions

New York Jets vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 2, 2023 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-132/+102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 24.5 @ -107 before it was bet up to 24.5 @ -132.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Chiefs as the 8th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 62.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The model projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 38.1 passes in this game, on average: the 5th-most of all quarterbacks.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a big 7.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The predictive model expects the Chiefs to run the 11th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Patrick Mahomes's passing precision has declined this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 67.7% to 63.4%.
Since the start of last season, the formidable New York Jets defense has surrendered a measly 68.1% Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 7th-smallest rate in the league.
When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, New York's CB corps has been outstanding since the start of last season, grading out as the best in the NFL.

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