Patrick Mahomes Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Completions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Chicago Bears · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 7:26 PM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 10th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs offense as the 8th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 27.04 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 37.4 passes in this game, on average: the 5th-most of all QBs.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line ranks as the 7th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 7th-highest clip in the NFL against the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season (72.7%).

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a huge 12.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 27.7 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in the league.
Patrick Mahomes's throwing precision has worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 67.7% to 60.3%.

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