Patrick Mahomes Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Completions

New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 18, 2023 3:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-135/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 23.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 24.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 4th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 62.0% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
In this game, Patrick Mahomes is expected by the predictive model to total the 2nd-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 38.6.
With an exceptional 67.2% Adjusted Completion% (76th percentile) this year, Patrick Mahomes places as one of the best precision passers in football.
This year, the weak Patriots defense has allowed a colossal 71.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 10th-biggest rate in the league.
The New England cornerbacks project as the 9th-worst unit in the league this year in defending receivers.

Favors Under

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their usual game plan.

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