Patrick Mahomes Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Completions

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 3:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 24.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 24.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 5th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 63.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
In this week's contest, Patrick Mahomes is predicted by the projection model to have the 3rd-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 39.0.
With an impressive 67.8% Adjusted Completion% (75th percentile) this year, Patrick Mahomes stands as one of the most accurate passers in football.
This year, the poor Las Vegas Raiders defense has been gouged for a monstrous 74.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 5th-biggest rate in football.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a huge 9.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.

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