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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Completions
Player Prop Week 9

Kansas City Chiefs vs Tennessee Titans

Patrick Mahomes Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-110/-118).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 24.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 24.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 7th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 62.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 37.2 passes in this week's game, on average: the 8th-most of all quarterbacks.

Opposing QBs have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense this year: 6th-most in football.

The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Patrick Mahomes has been among the most on-target QBs in football this year with a terrific 67.5% Completion%, ranking in the 80th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chiefs are a big 13.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 4th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Tennessee Titans defensive ends rank as the 3rd-best collection of DEs in the NFL this year when it comes to pass rush.

The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on just 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box against opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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