Patrick Mahomes Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Completions

San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (+104/-139).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 26.5 @ -108 before it was bet down to 25.5 @ -139.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 2nd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 64.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 39.8 passes in this week's game, on average: the 3rd-most of all QBs.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Patrick Mahomes has been among the best precision passers in the NFL this year with a terrific 66.5% Completion%, ranking in the 79th percentile.

Favors Under

The weatherman calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 6th-least in football.
The San Francisco 49ers safeties grade out as the 2nd-best group of safeties in football this year in pass coverage.
The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on just 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.