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Patrick Mahomes
NFL · Player Props
Patrick Mahomes
QB · Kansas City Chiefs
Completions
San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 7, 2022 Updated Oct 23, 2022 8:06 PM UTC
NFL Props Patrick Mahomes Completions

Patrick Mahomes Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (+104/-139).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 26.5 @ -108 before it was bet down to 25.5 @ -139.

Favors Over
  • THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 2nd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 64.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 39.8 passes in this week's game, on average: the 3rd-most of all QBs.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
  • Patrick Mahomes has been among the best precision passers in the NFL this year with a terrific 66.5% Completion%, ranking in the 79th percentile.
Favors Under
  • The weatherman calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
  • Opposing teams have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 6th-least in football.
  • The San Francisco 49ers safeties grade out as the 2nd-best group of safeties in football this year in pass coverage.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on just 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
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