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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Completions
Player Prop Week 22

Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-190/+148).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 25.5 @ -127 before it was bet down to 24.5 @ +148.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 70.5% pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 138.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Patrick Mahomes has attempted 40.2 passes per game this year, checking in at the 92nd percentile among quarterbacks.

The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 10th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing game stats across the board.

Patrick Mahomes has been among the most on-target quarterbacks in the NFL this year with an impressive 67.9% Completion%, grading out in the 94th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.

Opposing offenses have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game versus the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: least in the league.

Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 4th-lowest rate in the league against the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year (67.1%).

The Philadelphia Eagles cornerbacks project as the 2nd-best CB corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

The Philadelphia Eagles defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.40 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 7th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.

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