Patrick Mahomes Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Completions

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 12:31 AM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-135/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 27.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 27.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 67.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 42.1 passes in this game, on average: the most of all quarterbacks.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line grades out as the 9th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
Patrick Mahomes has been among the most accurate passers in football this year with an impressive 67.9% Completion%, grading out in the 88th percentile.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a massive 8.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone for it on 4th down just 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-least in the NFL), which usually means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.