My Account Log Out

reorder

Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Completions
Player Prop Week 17

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos

Patrick Mahomes Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 26.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 25.5 @ +100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 8th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the most plays on offense among all teams this week with 69.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 41.6 passes in this contest, on average: the most of all QBs.

Patrick Mahomes has been among the most on-target passers in the league this year with an impressive 67.7% Completion%, ranking in the 94th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chiefs are a massive 12.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.

The Denver Broncos cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-best group of CBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on just 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The Denver Broncos have stacked the box versus opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on just 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

More Patrick Mahomes Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™