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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Completions
Player Prop Week 15

Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-135/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 24.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 24.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 63.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 10th-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 8th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 59.8 plays per game.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 40.2 passes this week, on average: the 3rd-most of all QBs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chiefs are a massive 14.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.5 pass attempts per game against the Houston Texans defense this year: 5th-least in the league.

Opposing teams have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest level in the league against the Houston Texans defense this year (65.2%).

The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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