Patrick Mahomes Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Completions

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 12, 2022 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (+114/-144).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 24.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 24.5 @ -144.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 64.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 6th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 10th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a colossal 59.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 41.4 passes in this game, on average: the 3rd-most of all QBs.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line has afforded their QB 2.60 seconds before getting pressured (best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a huge 8.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 10th-lowest rate in the NFL versus the Denver Broncos defense this year (68.7%).
The Denver Broncos safeties grade out as the 2nd-best safety corps in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Denver Broncos have stacked the box versus opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.