Patrick Mahomes Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Completions

Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-127/-108).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 25.5 @ -106 before it was bet down to 24.5 @ -108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 3rd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 66.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 136.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 43.5 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 3rd-most of all QBs.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Patrick Mahomes has been among the most on-target quarterbacks in football this year with a stellar 67.6% Completion%, checking in at the 85th percentile.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a massive 9.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 9th-least in football.
The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers profile as the 6th-best collection of LBs in the league this year in pass coverage.
The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.