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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Carries
Player Prop Week 9

Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Patrick Mahomes Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -127 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Chiefs are a huge 8.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.

The projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers linebackers rank as the worst collection of LBs in football this year when it comes to defending the run.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Right now, the least run-oriented team in the NFL (35.3% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Kansas City Chiefs.

In this game, Patrick Mahomes is projected by the model to garner the fewest rush attempts out of all quarterbacks with 3.5.

After taking on 15.6% of his team's rush attempts last season, Patrick Mahomes has been called on less the run game this season, currently comprising just 9.4%.

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