Patrick Mahomes Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Carries

San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 7, 2024

Updated Oct 20, 2024 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-115/-115).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects Patrick Mahomes to be a much bigger part of his team's run game this week (14.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (9.3% in games he has played).
As it relates to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, San Francisco's unit has been dreadful this year, grading out as the 5th-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

Favors Under

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to run on 35.3% of their chances: the lowest rate on the slate this week.
The model projects this game to have the 3rd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 125.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

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