Patrick Mahomes Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Carries

Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 12:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+104/-138).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -138.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects this game to have the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.1 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
Accounting for 15.1% of his team's rushing play calls this year (80th percentile when it comes to quarterbacks), Patrick Mahomes's mobility makes him a dangerous weapon in Kansas City's rushing attack.
When talking about run-blocking (and the effect it has on all ground game metrics), the O-line of the Chiefs grades out as the best in the league last year.
As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, Miami's DT corps has been awful this year, projecting as the 3rd-worst in football. in football.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 31.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

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