Patrick Mahomes Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Carries

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 13, 2023 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chiefs are a heavy 10.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
Windy weather conditions (like the 20-mph being called for in this game) typically mean decreased passing effectiveness, lower air volume, and increased run volume.
In this game, Patrick Mahomes is expected by the projection model to accrue the 9th-most carries out of all quarterbacks with 4.6.
Patrick Mahomes isn't afraid to take off running, taking on 15.9% of his team's carries this year, putting him in the 75th percentile among quarterbacks.
The the Chiefs O-line grades out as the best in the league last year at blocking for rushers.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the least run-centric offense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 30.7% run rate.
Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

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