Patrick Mahomes Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Carries

Minnesota Vikings vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on running than their usual approach.
Our trusted projections expect the Chiefs to run the 4th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.8 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The leading projections forecast Patrick Mahomes to total 4.6 carries in this week's contest, on average: the 9th-most among all QBs.
Patrick Mahomes has been much more involved in his offense's ground game this season (19.6% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (13.6%).
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line ranks as the best in the league last year at opening holes for runners.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 34.5% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Vikings defensive tackles profile as the 3rd-best DT corps in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.

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