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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Carries
Player Prop Week 22

Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers

Patrick Mahomes Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-149/+115).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect this game to have the smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 127.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Patrick Mahomes isn't afraid to be involved in the run game, making up 14.4% of his team's carries this year, placing him in the 85th percentile among quarterbacks.

When talking about run support (and the effect it has on all run game statistics), the offensive line of the Kansas City Chiefs profiles as the best in the league last year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 33.7% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being projected in this game) usually mean better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and lower run volume.

As it relates to the safeties' role in stopping the run, San Francisco's group of safeties has been great this year, profiling as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

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