Patrick Mahomes Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Carries

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 18, 2023 2:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+130/-160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chiefs are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 134.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to notch 5.0 carries this week, on average: the 9th-most of all QBs.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to be a more important option in his offense's rushing attack this week (20.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (14.3% in games he has played).
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the best in the NFL since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 6th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 36.9% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive tackles grade out as the 5th-best unit in the league since the start of last season with their run defense.

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