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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Carries
Player Prop Week 19

Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins

Patrick Mahomes Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Chiefs are a 4.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.

The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 132.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The weatherman calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.

Our trusted projections expect Patrick Mahomes to accrue 4.3 carries in this contest, on average: the 3rd-most among all QBs.

The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the best in the league last year at blocking for rushers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to run on 38.7% of their downs: the 4th-lowest clip on the slate this week.

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