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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Carries
Player Prop Week 17

Kansas City Chiefs vs Cincinnati Bengals

Patrick Mahomes Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +110 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

With a 7-point advantage, the Chiefs are a huge favorite in this week's game, indicating much more of a focus on rushing than their normal game plan.

In this game, Patrick Mahomes is forecasted by the predictive model to total the 10th-most rush attempts among all quarterbacks with 4.6.

Taking on 15.9% of his offense's rush attempts this year (83rd percentile when it comes to QBs), Patrick Mahomes's mobility marks him as a serious threat with his legs.

The Chiefs offensive line grades out as the best in the NFL last year in run-blocking.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Chiefs to run on 39.1% of their downs: the 9th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.

The predictive model expects the Chiefs to call the 5th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Cincinnati Bengals defensive tackles grade out as the 7th-best unit in the league this year with their run defense.

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