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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Carries
Player Prop Week 15

New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+120/-155).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -155.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their usual game plan.

Patrick Mahomes isn't afraid to run the ball, comprising 14.7% of his offense's run game usage this year, placing him in the 81st percentile when it comes to quarterbacks.

The Kansas City offensive line ranks as the best in the league last year at executing run-blocking assingments.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to run on 38.0% of their downs: the 4th-lowest clip among all teams this week.

The Patriots safeties grade out as the best safety corps in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.

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