Patrick Mahomes Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Carries

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chiefs are a huge 9.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
The leading projections forecast Patrick Mahomes to earn 4.4 rush attempts in this week's contest, on balance: the 10th-most among all quarterbacks.
Comprising 15.7% of his offense's rushing play calls this year (84th percentile among QBs), Patrick Mahomes's mobility makes him a dangerous threat in the run game.
In regards to run support (and the ramifications it has on all ground game stats), the O-line of the Kansas City Chiefs profiles as the best in the NFL last year.

Favors Under

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to run on 36.4% of their opportunities: the 2nd-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Las Vegas Raiders defensive ends profile as the best collection of DEs in the league this year with their run defense.

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