My Account Log Out

reorder

Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Carries
Player Prop Week 1

Kansas City Chiefs vs Detroit Lions

Patrick Mahomes Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-145/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -145.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Chiefs are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the best in the league since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.

The Detroit Lions safeties grade out as the 27th-worst unit in the league since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.

The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 36.2% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.

The Kansas City Chiefs have elected to go for it on 4th down a measly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

More Patrick Mahomes Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™