Patrick Mahomes Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Carries

Kansas City Chiefs vs Detroit Lions · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 7, 2023 11:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-145/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chiefs are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the best in the league since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
The Detroit Lions safeties grade out as the 27th-worst unit in the league since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.
The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 36.2% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
The Kansas City Chiefs have elected to go for it on 4th down a measly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

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