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Pat Freiermuth Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-102/-128).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The predictive model expects this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 139.0 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 61.4 plays per game.Pat Freiermuth has run a route on 74.9% of his offense's passing plays this year, ranking him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to tight ends.The predictive model expects Pat Freiermuth to notch 4.9 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 79th percentile when it comes to tight ends.Pat Freiermuth grades out as one of the best pass-game tight ends this year, averaging an exceptional 3.5 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 80th percentile.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Steelers are a 6-point favorite this week, likely leading to a running game script.Our trusted projections expect the Steelers to be the 2nd-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 50.4% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being projected in this game) usually cause lessened passing efficiency, reduced air volume, and increased rush volume.Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to lean on the pass against the Cleveland Browns, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 31.6 per game) this year.This year, the imposing Browns defense has conceded a meager 70.0% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 4th-smallest rate in football.
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