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Pat Freiermuth

Pat Freiermuth Receptions
Player Prop Week 12

Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Pat Freiermuth Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-245/+182).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -220 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -245.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have 137.5 total plays run: the highest number among all games this week.

The 3rd-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a whopping 61.4 per game on average).

With an elite 75.3% Route% (86th percentile) this year, Pat Freiermuth has been as one of the TEs with the highest volume in the NFL.

Pat Freiermuth is positioned as one of the leading tight ends in the pass game this year, averaging an outstanding 3.1 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 77th percentile.

Pat Freiermuth's 92.2% Adjusted Catch Rate this year reflects a substantial improvement in his receiving proficiency over last year's 73.2% rate.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's line suggests a running game script for the Steelers, who are favored by 3.5 points.

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Steelers to pass on 44.1% of their chances: the lowest clip on the slate this week.

Windy weather conditions (like the 15-mph being projected in this game) typically cause worse passing efficiency, lower air volume, and higher rush volume.

Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to pass too much against the Cleveland Browns, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 30.3 per game) this year.

The Browns pass defense has yielded the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (66.5%) vs. tight ends this year (66.5%).

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