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Pat Freiermuth

Pat Freiermuth Receptions
Player Prop Week 1

Atlanta Falcons vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Pat Freiermuth Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+110/-143).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +112 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are predicted by the projection model to run 65.5 plays on offense in this contest: the 10th-most among all teams this week.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

With a high 69.7% Route% (86th percentile) last year, Pat Freiermuth stands as one of the tight ends with the highest volume in the NFL.

In this game, Pat Freiermuth is predicted by our trusted projection set to secure a spot in the 81st percentile among TEs with 4.4 targets.

With an impressive 3.4 adjusted receptions per game (77th percentile) last year, Pat Freiermuth has been among the top pass-catching tight ends in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Steelers to pass on 52.8% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest frequency on the slate this week.

The Steelers have run the 7th-fewest plays in football last year, averaging a mere 55.8 plays per game.

The Steelers O-line ranks as the 4th-worst in the NFL last year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

Last year, the daunting Falcons defense has surrendered a meager 69.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing tight ends: the 7th-smallest rate in football.

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