My Account Log Out

reorder

Pat Freiermuth

Pat Freiermuth Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals

Pat Freiermuth Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-165/+135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -145 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -165.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Steelers will be rolling with backup QB Mason Rudolph this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Steelers are underdogs in this game, suggesting more of an emphasis on passing than their usual game plan.

Our trusted projections expect Pat Freiermuth to garner 5.1 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 82nd percentile among tight ends.

The Bengals pass defense has allowed the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (82.7%) vs. TEs this year (82.7%).

When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Cincinnati's safety corps has been very bad this year, grading out as the worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Our trusted projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 6th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 53.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The model projects the Steelers to call the 8th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The 6th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a mere 55.5 per game on average).

Pat Freiermuth's 32.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive usage) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 41.2.

The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.

More Pat Freiermuth Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™