Pat Freiermuth Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Pat Freiermuth

NFL · Player Props

Pat Freiermuth

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 3:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Pat Freiermuth Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+114/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the 6th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Bengals pass defense has allowed the 5th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (79.7%) to tight ends this year (79.7%).
The Cincinnati Bengals safeties profile as the worst unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

Favors Under

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 52.6% of their downs: the 4th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
Pat Freiermuth's 9.7% Target% this season illustrates a remarkable regression in his pass game workload over last season's 18.9% rate.
When it comes to pass protection (and the significance it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Steelers ranks as the 8th-worst in the league this year.
Pat Freiermuth's receiving performance has diminished this year, compiling a mere 1.8 adjusted receptions vs 4.3 last year.
Pat Freiermuth's ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate decreasing from 67.8% to 64.5%.

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