Pat Freiermuth Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Pat Freiermuth

NFL · Player Props

Pat Freiermuth

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 4:01 AM EST

Analysis

Pat Freiermuth Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+120/-160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are predicted by our trusted projection set to call 66.1 total plays in this game: the 4th-most among all teams this week.
In this contest, Pat Freiermuth is projected by the projection model to land in the 78th percentile among TEs with 4.4 targets.

Favors Under

The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 5th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 54.9 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 26.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Browns defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
Pat Freiermuth's 10.6% Target Share this season illustrates a significant drop-off in his pass game workload over last season's 18.9% figure.
As it relates to pass-blocking (and the effect it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the Steelers grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year.
Pat Freiermuth's pass-catching performance declined this year, accumulating a measly 2.0 adjusted receptions vs 4.3 last year.

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